We should talk about North Korea (NK). You may have noticed it in the news lately and you are certainly going to hear a lot more about NK during the month of June as we approach this “summit”. The fact is that NK has been a thorn in the US side since the 1940’s, when we actually fought a war on that peninsula. Considering the bellicose pack of war-hawks with which Trump has surrounded himself, we may be going back to that peninsula in the near future.

There are three major facets that comprise the NK problem: their totalitarian regime, their conventional weapon capacity in relation to Seoul, and their nuclear capability. Let’s take them in order.

The Regime:

The Kim Dynasty has ruled NK since 1948. That’s 70 straight years of repressive, ruthless dictatorship. What a family! The Kim regime is the only family-inherited totalitarian dictatorship in the world for over 200 years and also the only Communistic dynasty in history. Kim Il-sung was the first of the family to rule and began his reign of the northern half of the peninsula when Japanese rule of the area receded at the end of WWII. Kim Il-sung led NK during the Korean conflict with the US and South Korea and he was deeply affected during that war by the implied threat to his country and their ally, China, posed by the US nuclear weapons. He never forgot the feeing of vulnerability that resulted from his enemy having nuclear weapons, while he did not. Kim Il-sung made the hallmark of his regime, and subsequently those of this son and grandson, that NK would develop a nuclear capability, even to the detriment of his country and his people.

In 1994, Kim Il-sung died and was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il and, since 2011, the regime has been led by his grandson Kim Jong-un. Over that time, NK has developed into a nuclear state. In 2006, the country tested its first nuclear device and has continued to perfect their nuclear capability. Over the last few years, Kim Jong-un has married their nuclear weapons with an intercontinental ballistic missile system. NK recently tested an ICBM that flew over Japan and traveled over 3700 miles before landing in the Pacific. With these recent developments, NK has become a nuclear threat to a large part of the world, including the Pacific coast of the US and Hawaii.

The Jong family’s insatiable desire for nuclear weapons and repressive dictatorship policies has horribly impacted the people of NK. The country suffered a disastrous famine from 1994 to 1998 that killed possibly more than 10% of their population. Accurate numbers of the dead are impossible to establish, but everyone in the general population was impacted. The reasons for the disaster are many, but the inability of Kim regime’s centrally-controlled economy to respond to the collapse of the Soviet Union was the pivotal point that led to their economic and agricultural disaster. Interestingly, an important response from the Kim regime to the famine was to ban the Korean words for “famine” and “starvation” from the language. Although the famine provides the most obvious example of this regime’s calloused disregard to the welfare of its citizens, the NK people have been consistently deprived for the entire 70 years that his family has ruled.  Based on measurements taken on the border between the two countries, the average male North Korean is between 2-3 inches shorter than the average South Korean and North Koreans have 12 years less of life expectancy than South Koreans.

Based on per capita GDP, the South Korean economy is more than 1000% wealthier than North Korea’s, though they were virtually identical as recently as 1974. While only 3% of the roads in NK are paved, the regime does boast the worlds 4th largest military with over 1.2 million active personnel. This for the world’s 52nd largest country.

Conventional Weapons

Separately from NK’s destructive desire for a nuclear arsenal, NK has always been a weaponized state. The Kim regime, like all dictatorships, realizes that they will stay in power only through the appearance of strength. With that in mind, although the head of a backwards economy of the world’s 52nd largest country, Kim Jong-un has the 4th largest army with a huge artillery arsenal.

Why do I mention the artillery? Because within range of almost all of NK’s over 2000 artillery pieces lies the South Korean capitol of Seoul. Seoul is a modern, bustling city of over 25 million. In the event of war, large sections of Seoul would be devastated within the first hour of hostilities, with potentially millions killed. Imagine the scenario of the combined populations of New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles all being attacked by a barrage of missiles within easy striking range of an enemy and you have an idea of the Seoul situation and the threat that NK poses to South Korea. Long before the threat of NK’s nuclear weapons, the nightmare of a continual artillery barrage into the mega-city of Seoul has been the factor that governed the cautious US approach in dealing with these maniacs. That threat is no less real today.

Nuclear Arsenal

We’ve already discussed the NK regime’s acquisition of nuclear weapon capacity, so there’s no need to rehash that subject. What is important to try to understand about, and negotiate with, this ruling family is their intrinsic reliance on nuclear deterrence. Succinctly put, NK will never give up their nuclear weapons. Never. Under no conditions. Kim Jong-un is fixated on the Muammar al-Gaddafi example of what happens when a tyrannical dictator negotiates away his nuclear safety net. Within a couple of years after relinquishing his nuclear capacity,  Gaddafi was overthrown and dead in a sewage ditch. So, Kim Jong-un views his nuclear weapons as his life insurance and he’s probably not wrong. The Korean peninsula will never be “nuclear free” as long as a Kim rules the North.

Solutions

Diplomacy and sanctions have little effect on a ruling regime that does not care about the welfare of its people. It’s a well known fact that severe sanctions on a nation primarily impact the poor and vulnerable members of the populace. That’s already happened in NK and has not changed their diplomatic position even slightly. Even more draconian reductions in trade will not impact the members of the ruling family or the military.

China is said to have great influence over the Kim regime. China supplies NK with most of their resources and trade and is NK’s closest diplomatic partner. China will not use their influence to curb Kim. China’s own actions in the international arena have been more aggressive over the last few years. A rogue NK fits into China’s Asia trade and political domination plans very nicely. No matter what you hear from this President, China is not part of the solution.

Simply put, the only solution to the North Korea dilemma is regime change. Regime change in a totalitarian, closed society is not easy. Regime change will most likely come from within, but would have to overcome a 70 year, all-encompassing personality cult that dominates NK society, politics, and military. The Kim family has an active secret police and an obedient populace. They tolerate no dissent. Eventually, they will probably be overthrown by the military, but that might happen in 2 years or in 30.

North Korea has been a diplomatic and military nightmare for the US and the Western world for 70 years. The NK threat has become even more serious with their development of nuclear capacity and a sophisticated missile delivery system. The idea that this bumbling fool and his band of dolts are wading into unchartered negotiating waters with the Kim regime should result in many sleepless nights for all of us with an understanding of what is at stake. This is not going to be good.