The Super Bowl was held this week. Lousy game, really, but the game is almost anticlimactic. The buildup to the game is what matters. A whole fortnight of analyses and talking heads – and commercials. Always commercials. Will the Bucs aggressive front line be able to contain Maholmes’ wizardry? Can Brady win another one? On and on. Analyzed to death.

So I thought that maybe we should do a quick analyses of the 2 combatants in the most important competition in which any of us have been involved in our lives. Might be interesting, though admittedly I may have a skewed definition of “interesting”. Let’s try. I promise there will be no commercial interruptions nor any large men in ill-fitting suits participating.

The Virus: Covid is a tiny bit of genetic material with only one purpose: to reproduce. That’s it. One goal. One drive. No ulterior motives. No doubts. Most importantly – no conscience. This virus wants to find a host and replicate itself as quickly as possible and then move to another host. The more hosts you offer the virus, the happier the virus is. The really nasty characteristic about a virus is that it doesn’t care about any destruction to the individual host nor the havoc it wreaks in a population (sort of like Trump, in that respect). In fact, most of the illness and symptoms that we see in Covid patients are not really caused by the virus itself, but by our body’s reaction to the virus. Until stopped, the virus will continue on its merry way leaving a wide swath of death and illness until there are no longer enough hosts to infect, then it will begin to recede.

Another extremely important virus characteristic is its ability to mutate. A virus is essentially a “genetic thing”. It uses the hosts own DNA to replicate itself, so the opportunity for mutation is constant and the virus takes advantage. Covid has already mutated thousands of times and most of those mutations have either died out or been inconsequential. However, as Darwin showed us, some mutations offer the new line of virus a competitive advantage over the other strains. These variants then take hold in the population, become predominant, and may offer new concerns about virulence or infectivity. Covid is currently showing us that aspect of its arsenal.

Humans: Lining up against the virus in this competition is the host population – humans. Lumbering, slow witted people against a lightening quick killer. Do they even have a chance, Terry?

Well, luckily, we’re not all lumbering and slow-witted. In fact, the great advantage that humans have against Covid is that we are sentient beings. We can perceive. We can observe. Most significantly, we can think and some of us think well and deeply and clearly. Put simply, humans have science on their side in this battle and that has begun to turn the tide.

The scientific battle with Covid began as soon as the virus was discovered. China may or may not have done many things wrong during this pandemic, but one thing they most assuredly did right was to map the virus’ genetic code and communicate the sequences widely to the scientific community. As soon as that genetic information was broadcast, teams of virologists and vaccine specialists began to decipher the code and develop methods that might render the “spikes” on the virus’ surface less effective in attaching to host cells, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection and subsequent sequela. Because of work that had been done with previous coronaviruses, researchers at NIH were able to design the modifying proteins to alter the protein of the Covid spike within 1 day of receiving the sequences from China. Three days later, those researchers (Barney Graham, Jason McLellan, and others) sent the information to Moderna for manufacturing. Six weeks later Moderna began shipping vaccine vials for initial trials. (Just stop for a moment and think about what some brilliant men and women and SCIENCE were able to accomplish in that short time span and the importance that their work has on your life and on the world’s population. Amazing.)

On another front, as a novel coronavirus was sweeping through civilization, epidemiologists were faced with the horrendous task of confronting a highly infectious, virulent enemy with no pharmaceutical weapons. There were certainly missteps. WHO convened a panel of experts to help provide early guidance. Unfortunately, that panel was comprised of experts in influenza and tended to address the Covid virus as though it was transmitted and attacked like a flu. The emphasis on fomite transmission and neglecting fine mist respiratory transmission resulted in focusing on cleaning surfaces and not on recommending masks to reduce infection rates. Both of these were wrong. Also, CDC messed up horribly on the the development and manufacture of the initial tests for the virus, putting this country behind on essential testing from which we never recovered. To their credit, however, epidemiologists were responsible for gathering and interpreting all of the data about this outbreak and for recommending the only interventions that have shown to have reduced the spread of the pandemic – limited shutdowns, distancing, masking, and case isolation.

There are so many other examples of humans who intelligently and scientifically approached the battle with this opponent – medical staff who continually adjusted treatment regimens that significantly reduced the fatality rate from these infections; improved O2 therapies that enable more patients to recover without having to be placed on ventilators; and others of which we won’t even know until this battle is over and we have the time to fully review.

Taken together, these scientific advances have given humans the blueprint for dealing with, and perhaps, defeating the Covid virus. Make no mistake, this contest is not over and humans cannot declare any sort of victory. We may very well have to settle for a sort of armistice and learn to live with Covid for some time into the future. While that society may not be exactly what we had previously or what we imagine we deserve, it sure will be better than 2020.

Smart people approaching a problem in a systematic, logical way and experimenting with possible methods to successfully address the issue is how we have been able to begin to deal with Covid. In other words, science was the answer. The tendency that this country has shown over the last 40 years of denigrating expertise and ignoring scientific knowledge almost ruined us over this past year and did result in the deaths of over 500,000 of our fellow citizens. I wish I could say that we’ve had a wake up call and we will re-emphasize education and scientific funding. I just don’t think the US will see the Covid pandemic as any kind of a turning point. There are still too many Neanderthals in positions of power and influence.

So, how did the game go? Right now, I’d call it a tie with the momentum on the side of the humans. That could change in a moment’s notice, though, Tony. Now, a word from our sponsors.

Stay Safe. Stay Informed. Wear the Mask. Get the Shot.

For a fascinating account of the entire Covid outbreak in the US, please read Lawrence Wright’s “The Plague Year” in the January 4 issue of the New Yorker. Yes, you have the time. What else do you have to do?