Such a long slog we’ve all been living through. It has now been almost exactly one year since the first case of a novel coronavirus was discovered in the United States. We have all lived through the failure of the initial testing by CDC, the fear of the ventilator shortage, the gross ineptitude of the Trump administration’s response to the lack of PPE availability for our health care system, the abdication of Federal leadership, the constant mendacity of the Orange One, and the ever rising numbers of the infected and dead. Throughout all of this dark and fearful time, though, people held tightly to the hope that an effective vaccine would be discovered sometime in the near future. For many, that hope was what sustained them. In the end, that hope was realized and everyone is now looking forward to a “return to normalcy” by summer.

I hate to dash those hopes, but a hard look at the numbers and the logistics inherent with this type of massive undertaking bely any major relief by the Covid vaccine before at least early 2022, at best. Let’s forget the logistics and the missteps so far involved in the vaccine rollout and just focus on the numbers. The Biden administration has set a goal of 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of his Presidency. This is a worthy objective. One million vaccinations per day would be more than has been achieved in any single day so far. Although some people in the Biden camp feel that the 100 million target is unachievable, we’ll use that number for our calculations. 100 million vaccinations would inoculate 50 million US citizens by approximately May 1, 2021. Less than 15%. Maintaining those numbers through another 100 days would offer another 50 million people vaccine protection by mid-August. So, if everything goes according to plan (never happens) and we are able to keep up “sprint level” speeds for a marathon length undertaking, approximately 1/3 of the population will have been vaccinated by the end of the summer. Not nearly “herd immunity” proportions of our population.

Another quick and dirty way to view the numbers is: 330 million people; 80% agree to the vaccine – 264 million; 2 shots each – 528 million vials; 1 million vials per day – 528 days; 80% of US population vaccinated by sometime in June, 2022.

Now, of course, there are many factors in play with this rollout and a change in any or all of those factors would change the quantity of vaccine available and, possibly, the numbers inoculated. However, without a major influx of resources to state and local health departments and much more careful planning from the Federal perspective, the long term outcome of the vaccination program is much more likely to be fewer people vaccinated rather than 1 million per day being an underestimate.

In my estimation, the US needs to reach 3 million shots per day sometime by the late spring/early summer of 2021 to meet this country’s expectations. Good luck with that. Until then:

Stay safe. Stay informed. Wear the mask. Get the shots.