It has been quite awhile since I have written about, well, anything, but most specifically about our friendly, neighborhood virus. I moved back to the South Carolina low country at the beginning of November after having just left here in March. Long story, but the short take from it all is that moving is hell.

There has been a lot of development in our ongoing saga about Covid while I was busy with banks and boxes. Of course, the dramatic news has been the discovery of an extremely effective vaccine (95%?) by, not one, but two companies and the rapid review, approval, and shipment of those life-saving scientific miracles. If you read my Covid essays on this site from the beginning, you will see that almost all of my projections have come true (unfortunately), but I was really wrong about the development of any vaccine. First of all, I thought any vaccine against a coronavirus would only be about 50%-60% effective and that no vaccine would be through testing and review and ready to ship until late spring at the earliest. Never happier to be so wrong on so many fronts. I guess I didn’t fully appreciate the role of mRNA in vaccine development. Who knew? Well, thank God someone did.

So, that’s the good news. I am afraid this is where the good news ends. The present is awful and what is ahead on the short term is frightening – really frightening.

Current –

Reported cases of Covid are now over 200,000 per day. The US total of reported cases is now over 17 million with some scientific estimates of actual cases in the US at 4 to 8 times that number (68 million to 136 million). As of mid-December, 40 states are classified as having a high number of case and increasing, with only 1 state (Hawaii) showing decreasing numbers of cases.

Over 300,000 people in the US have died from Covid. That number jumps to 377,000 if you focus on excess deaths (number of deaths this year compared to previous years) nationally. When all the numbers are in, Covid will probably be responsible for about a 33% jump in deaths above normal for the nation for 2020. At this point in time, 44 states are showing increasing number of deaths per day.

Covid-related hospitalizations are increasing rapidly and are at their highest level for the pandemic – more than 110,000 for the nation. More importantly, in many mid- to major-cities and even rural areas, hospitals, ICUs, and staff are overwhelmed, with no reserve beds or expertise from which to draw reserves.

Winter Is Coming –

There have been all types of warnings projected to the US public from health authorities about what this winter will look like. Most have been roundly ignored. Let me be clear – this will be the darkest January for the US in over 100 years. The recent surge in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are just a harbinger of what is about to descend on us unless there are profound changes in our attitude and response to this virus. I have not looked at any of the models, so what I am about to project is based solely on what I see in the current trends, both data trends and societal trends.

We have not yet witnessed the full national impact of the Thanksgiving travel and gatherings on the Covid metrics, but that impact will just represent the “jumping off” point for the Christmas and Holiday Season travel and gatherings. Combining that frightening scenario with the willful ignorance of Republican national and state leadership, political polarization of effective interventions like spacing and masks, and overall “Covid-fatigue” of the general population will permit this unrelenting virus to impact our society in unimaginable ways.

If adequate testing is available, I believe we will witness over 400,000 Covid cases per day from late December through January. The number of daily deaths will hover around 5,000 per day with hospitalizations rising to about 200,000. Of course, as with all Covid statistics, national figures only tell a small part of the story. Local impacts will be much more draconian with many medical centers and hospitals overrun with severe Covid illness and media focusing coverage of temporary ICUs, morgues, and body bags. Vaccinations and medical advancements may ameliorate some of these predictions, but even factoring in those possibilities, I believe that this virus will have its way with us this winter. By February 1, the US may very well have reported nearly 30 million cases and half a million people dead from the Covid virus. Oh, and the economy will be absolutely wrecked. Not bad for such an “exceptional” country. We could have done so much better.

The reasons for my bleak outlook is not only what I’ve read and followed over this last month. What I’ve witnessed also contributes. For example, 2 days ago I was picking up a “to-go” meal at my favorite Mexican restaurant. Because of circumstances, I was forced to go in to the restaurant to order my food instead of by phone and what I saw both surprised and disappointed me. Every table was taken. No tables roped off for distancing and no one, of course, wearing a mask (Masks are difficult to impossible to wear in a restaurant. That’s one of the reasons that you should never dine indoors.). So, one infected person could easily have infected the entire restaurant within the time normally allotted for lunch. And this is happening almost everywhere in the south and many other states with Republican governors. The virus thanks all of you who have haughtily ignored the most basic precautions that you were begged to adopt, but front line medical staff, vulnerable populations, and the half a million families that will bury a loved one from this epidemic really do not.

Be Safe. Stay informed. Keep your distance. Wear the Mask.

And to 80 million of you – thanks for voting!