At 2 pm on the Friday after Thanksgiving, The Trump administration released this country’s most recent National Climate Assessment. The National Assessment (NA) is a report that is required by law and is compiled by a consortium scientists from 13 Federal government agencies and released every four years. The NA represents a summary and interpretation of the studies and data that have been conducted over the previous 4 years of the impacts of climate change on all aspects of this country and our society. The administration is required to submit this report to Congress. The most recent NA represents the fourth in the series.

In government, if you have a report that must be released, but that you would prefer the press and public ignore, you release the report on Friday afternoon. People are looking forward to their weekends and it’s the weakest period for the media’s news cycle. If you really want to bury the information, you release it on the Friday after Thanksgiving. No one is paying any attention. So, the Trump administration didn’t play hardball with the authors and the agencies with the report’s wording and the findings (because that attracts media and activist attention), they just buried this 1600 page report by releasing it when every good American was out shopping for bargains on useless items. In a White Hosse press release, they downplayed the importance and accuracy of the report. They counted on no one caring. They were, once again, wrong.

Front page in the Times, front page in the Washington Post, front page in the LA Times, front page in the Denver Post, front page in the conservative Chicago Tribune, lead story on the 4 network news national programs, multiple stories in the conservative Wall Street Journal, do I need to go on? The National Climate Assessment, along with its’ dire projections for nearly all aspects of our society, not only led but dominated the news cycle. As you read the report, it’s easy to understand why.

Although this NA built on the findings and projections of the 3 previous members of its family, the authors focused more strongly on the economic consequences of  continuing to ignore this mounting threat to our welfare. A sobering projection from the researchers was that, left unabated, climate change could cause more harm to the US economy that even the Great Recession did, about double the impact in crop damage, lost labor, and natural disaster losses. Even moderate warming would cost the US economy over $280 billion per year by 2090, extreme warming increases the bill to over $500 billion. By 2100, climate change could reduce the US GNP by over 10%, just based on disruption of our society and economic system by a changing climate. All major economic sectors will be negatively impacted.

The NA report is not solely focused on economic impacts. The authors again identify a long list of health impacts resulting from a changing climate. Heat waves will kill thousands and sicken tens of thousands more; vector borne diseases will continue to spread, including West Nile and Zika viruses; Lyme disease will continue its’ northward march: air quality will deteriorate because of increasing ground level ozone in cities and increasing particulate matter from wildfires in wide swatches of the West and Southwest; and thousands of people will be killed and injured each year from devastating natural disasters like hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. The annual impact of these natural disasters will be to eventually create thousands of “domestic refugees” made homeless and unemployed by preventable disasters and we all know just how much “real Americans” love refugees.

It is a 1600 page report and way too much to adequately represent in an 800 word essay. I would like to mention, though, the 4 major themes of this report and also of the most recent report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

  1. It’s already happening.
  2. It’s going to get much worse.
  3. It’s going to cost us – a lot.
  4. We can still do something about it.

I think you all already know that #’s 1 and 2 are true. This report makes #3 clear and understandable. Unfortunately, #4 is the most important of the themes and we, as a Nation, continue to ignore the fundamental changes and adaptations that must be enacted immediately. We just foolishly keep moving down the road in our wasteful, dirty energy, materialistic way. There’s a dystopian future down that road and we seem hell bent to get there.

One final word, this is the first National Assessment in which I played no role. For the first assessment, I was co-lead for the human health work. In the second, I was a lead author for an assessment chapter and, in the third, I was a member of the committee responsible for the direction and writing of the report. For this one, I was on the sidelines. Weird feeling, but I’m certainly proud of the work these scientists did and I believe the importance of their work is being recognized by a larger proportion of the US electorate as the effects of climate change become more manifest with each passing year.

Well done, gang.